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DETROIT: This town may not be big enough for the three of us.

As US consumers struggle in the face of tight credit, rising prices and job losses, auto industry experts say that a prolonged slump could cut the Detroit Big Three -- General Motors Corp, Ford Motor Co and Cerberus-run Chrysler LLC -- down to the Big Two.

Chrysler is widely perceived as most vulnerable, although it says it is meeting its financial goals.

"Chrysler is certainly the weakest of the three," said Erich Merkle, an automotive consultant at Crowe Horwath.

Some in the industry say 2009 will be a pivotal year for the Big Three.

"I think there will three going into next year and next year will be a telling point whether three emerge," Tom Stallkamp, an industrial partner at New York private equity firm Ripplewood Holdings and a former president of Chrysler, said at a summit this week.

Even more than the two other American auto makers, Chrysler is seen as overly reliant on gas-hungry heavy trucks and sports utility vehicles, a problem compounded by the fact that unlike Ford or GM, Chrysler has largely failed to go global.

This leaves the company overly exposed to US consumers when automakers are eyeing expanding markets like China, India and Eastern Europe for real, long-term sales growth.

"When I left in 1993, 10 percent of their (Chrysler's) volume was international," said Jerry York, an advisor to Tracinda Corp's $1 billion investment in Ford and a former chief financial officer at Chrysler. "It's still 10 percent."

"They don't have the diversification in the markets that GM and Ford have," he added.

Chrysler's options in a crisis may be limited as few automakers would be in a position to buy the company, especially if credit remains tight, some analysts said.

Other investors, such as private equity funds, may be reluctant to take a bet on a company that has already proven costly to its previous and current owners, they said.

"To be perfectly candid, I don't think there's a buyer for Chrysler right now," York said.

With the housing crisis in full swing -- depriving home owners of the once popular option of using their homes as ATMs -- plus rising unemployment, U.S. auto sales have fallen to 15-year lows.

Chrysler's U.S. sales are down 25 percent so far this year -- the largest drop for any of the major automakers. Light trucks account for nearly 70 percent of Chrysler's volume at a time when consumers are moving toward smaller and more fuel-efficient vehicles.

Like GM and Ford, Chrysler has faced scrutiny over its ability to ride out a downturn in US auto sales that many analysts expect to stretch through 2009.

The US automaker, which has released limited financial data since private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management CBS.UL bought it from Daimler AG (DAIGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) about a year ago, ended June with $11.7 billion in cash, and had earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization of $1.1 billion in the first half of the year.

As it is privately held, divining Chrysler's exact state of health is difficult. Last week company Vice Chairman Jim Press said Chrysler was "on target" to meet its internal financial goals, though those goals have not been made public.

"We haven't fallen off the table yet," Press said.

Company spokesman Shawn Morgan also said cost-cutting and restructuring had helped Chrysler meet its financial targets.

But analysts say the company is poorly positioned to weather the current downturn because it will have fewer new models out in 2009 than Ford and GM.

"Chrysler may miss out on some market stabilization because of a gap in its product lineup in 2009," Crowe Horwath's Merkle said. "As its new products will not come on line until 2010, 2009 will likely be a difficult year."

The expectations of a rough ride for Chrysler -- combined with the lack of financial data supplied by the private auto maker -- have apparently made it harder for the company's suppliers to obtain loans in a tight credit market.

"Getting credit for a Chrysler program is difficult right now," Stallkamp said.

Pete Hastings, an analyst at Morgan Keegan, said private equity firms or investors from developing markets like China who want to get a foothold in the US market might take a look at Chrysler.

"But Chrysler may have too much baggage for that," he said.

Crowe Horwath's Merkle said the auto maker's partnership with Nissan Motor Co Ltd could eventually lead to a broader deal. Chrysler recently announced a production deal with Nissan that would give it the small car it lacks by 2010.

In the meantime, the main question for Chrysler is how prolonged the slowdown in US auto sales will be.

"If the slump lasts for an extended period of time, then it is going to be difficult to keep three U.S. automakers alive," Morgan Keegan's Hastings said.